Brown & Brown’s Market Trends allows you to connect quickly to key topics and notable updates in the insurance marketplace. Dive deeper on any topic with our Brown & Brown team to better understand how these trends may impact your business. We welcome the conversation.

Property

The commercial property insurance marketplace is seeing further stabilization as rates and inflation continue to moderate.

Impacts of Natural Disasters

Since 2019, firm rate increases in the commercial marketplace have enabled commercial property carriers to stay ahead of loss cost trends and preserve underwriting profit. However, accounts in natural disaster-prone geographies, especially in hard-hit industries or severe convective storm locations, have continued to see premium increases, and continued growth will further enhance reserves. In contrast, those in geographies less prone to natural disasters have had higher bargaining power.

Impacts of Wildfires

This year began with large wildfires and significant losses in California. Most of the wildfire losses appear to directly impact the personal lines sector, less so the commercial lines sector. We expect the short-term impact to affect the personal sector, and anticipate properties located in wildfire-prone areas to experience retention at renewal. We expect this to have a long-term impact on the reinsurance capacity, but that impact will not be known until we get back to the January 1st treaty renewals. If we have another benign wind season and the CAT losses stay within the treaty budget, we don’t expect there to be an issue on the commercial market, but if we have an active CAT season, we could see a shifting of rates.

Underwriting Trends & Increased Competition

So far in 2025, carriers have continued to be practical regarding their underwriting guidelines as property carriers have pursued more growth and capacity. Competition has risen, especially on accounts with good loss prevention programs, lower natural catastrophe exposures and a favorable loss history. Single carrier placements are experiencing slightly different results than shared and layered placements. More benign single carrier placements are experiencing rate changes averaging from +5% to -10%, while layered or shared placements are experiencing +5% to -25%.

Outlook

Property rates continue to soften compared to prior years and are expected to continue through 2025. So far, there has been slightly higher softening than anticipated on favorable accounts. This enhanced competition has benefited many, providing welcome relief from prior terms. It is possible this trend could continue to develop.

Casualty

General Liability

Social inflation, litigation financing, regulatory changes and nuclear verdicts are driving rate increases, estimated at 5-10%. Carriers have increased focus on premises liability (assault & battery, sexual abuse and molestation and human trafficking), with underwriters specifically focusing on Real Estate and Habitational Accounts.

Auto Liability

The commercial auto insurance market in the United States is navigating a complex landscape characterized by escalating costs, evolving risks, and technological advancements. Rate increases over the last ten years have impacted the auto market, yet carriers still struggle with poor loss ratios. Anticipated rate increases range between 7.5-15%. Be proactive to ensure driver safety handbooks are up to date for any employee driving for company businesses.

The following factors have impacted auto pricing:

• Nuclear verdicts
• Inflation
• Distracted driving
• Increased scrutiny on hired and non-owned exposure

Umbrella / Excess Liability

Carriers in the excess liability space continue to reduce capacity and look to attach higher limits. Rate increases are anticipated between 10 20%. Inadequate reserves, larger jury awards, nuclear verdicts and litigation funding are the primary causes driving this trend.

Property & Casualty Team